On May 6th I went to the after work lecture in the Hochschule Liechtenstein. It was a very interesting and inspiring speech from Dr. Amlan Roy who is Head of Global Demographics and Pensions Research for the Investment Banking Division of Credit Suisse in London.  He packed a lot of information in his 90 minute talk:

He started with a quote from Peter Drucker on Demographics: “Demographics is the single most important factor that nobody pays attention to, and when they do pay attention, they miss the point.”

Conclusions

Demographics affects economic, financial and social variables in the short-term, medium-term as wall as long-term, not only long-term

Demographics affects GDP Growth, Fiscal burdens, Inflation, Current Account, Asset Returns, Urbanization, Migration, Climate Change and Geopolitics

Sectors demographically advantaged: EM, infrastructure, natural resources, financial services, pharma & biotech, leisure and luxury

Demographic solutions: increased retirement ages, selective migration, increased female labour force participation, outsourcing

Uncertain Life Expectancy necessitates capital market issuance of long bonds and Longevity Derivatives

Books he recommended :

- Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism by George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller
- Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists: Unleashing the Power of Financial Markets to Create Wealth and Spread Opportunity by by Raghuram G. Rajan and Luigi Zingales
- Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes by by Mark Penn and E. Kinney Zalesne